As expected, the Q3 data shows significant increases from September’s data with the exception of glass aggregate, which only saw a very minor increase against the monthly data. This is somewhat offset by remelts performance through the recent months, we are moving towards a situation where remelt is likely to be used to fulfil packaging producer’s glass aggregate requirements.
Quarterly data released for Q3
As expected, the Q3 data shows significant increases from September’s data with the exception of glass aggregate.
With another strong month of production (302,000T) paper remains ahead of the monthly requirement and we are now gaining significant ground against the general recycling obligation.
However, with the cost of living’s potential impact on the amount of paper/card packaging feedstock over the next couple of months, paper will remain one to watch throughout the remainder of the year.
Whilst glass aggregate had its second best month of the year (50,000T), this is still only a minor overperformance against the monthly target (46,000) which leaves aggregate still trailing a month behind its requirement for Q3.
With a huge 174,000T, remelt surpassed the monthly requirement for both aggregate and remelt combined (157,500).
This is an excellent performance for remelt which closes the gap on the overall glass requirement. If we continue, this should allow those with glass requirements to still comply with the aggregate obligations.
With circa 1700T in September in comparison to the 1100T monthly requirement, aluminium is continuing to perform strongly, and we are now seeing this beginning to impact the price.
With a high chance of a significant overproduction, it is possible we will see aluminium start to fulfil general recycling over the coming months and take some pressure off paper and wood.
A much needed boost in the quarterly data (+14,000T, up to 44,000T) has now pushed steel to again being ahead of its monthly production requirement.
With speculation that cost of living increases will result in more steel packaging being used by the public, it is possible that we will see an increase in feedstock.
Whilst plastic had a fantastic boost from the quarterly data (+48,000T), it remains one to watch as it is currently very tight to monthly requirements, putting pressure on availability and price.
As we still lack some visibility of our overall requirements with several large producers yet to register for 2022, it is possible that this could lean heavily in either direction following the finalising of the obligation.
At 165% of its monthly requirement, wood’s strong performance this month has heavily contributed to the beginning of making up the general recycling deficit.
Wood has consistently been performing well all year and with October traditionally a very good month for wood, we can be secure woods continuous overperformance.
“Even though we’ve seen significant increases to the paper and plastic recycling in the Q3 data, the national and global economic factors in play (as well a lack of certainty of the final UK obligation), leaves us hitting target on both grades in question and we continue to see high pressure and low availability.”
“The boost in the quarterly data shows the importance of compulsory data reporting and whilst compulsory monthly reporting could give greater insight into the UK’s recycling performance against the obligation throughout the year, I appreciate the impact this could have on smaller but still essential recyclers.”