As we enter the final quarter of the year, the overall obligation for recycling targets is becoming clearer, with more producers now added. While many producers are yet to register for 2024, early indications suggest the final obligation will reflect lower volumes than in 2023.
Moving into October, the confirmation of Q3 recycled volumes will provide a more accurate picture of progress towards meeting year-end targets. However, initial data from July and August shows underperformance across certain grades, including plastic, glass, and steel, highlighting areas that will require close attention to ensure compliance with recycling targets.
All obligation data referenced in this article is based on 2023 figures, as we await the release of the finalised 2024 obligations.
Paper and Board
August: 348,917t | YTD: 2,582,641t | YTD Net Req. 401,604t | Ahead/Behind: +401,604t
Paper and board performed well across July and August, exceeding its net monthly requirement by 2.9% (15,992 tonnes). This strong performance places it 18% ahead of its year-to-date (YTD) target (401,604 tonnes). While Paper is not currently at risk, it is important to remain cautious as the overall obligation is incomplete, and additional requirements could still be added. Additionally, Paper frequently fulfils the general recycling obligation, further reinforcing its importance in meeting broader compliance goals.
Aluminium
August: 13,376t | YTD: 101,039t | YTD Net Req. 94,128t | Ahead/Behind: +6,911t
Aluminium continues to perform healthily, exceeding its net monthly requirements by 6,911 tonnes, putting it 7% ahead of its YTD obligations. However, this margin is not substantial enough to guarantee a comfortable position, and any underproduction in the coming months could negatively affect its standing. Continued vigilance is essential to ensure Aluminium maintains its progress.
Steel
August: 20,891t | YTD: 239,506t | YTD Net Req. 231,553t | Ahead/Behind: +7,953t
Like Aluminium, Steel is also ahead of its YTD net requirements, despite underperforming in the last two months. Currently, Steel is 3% ahead of its YTD target. However, with approximately 89,000 tonnes still required to meet compliance, caution is necessary. While no significant changes in production pace are expected, a drop in performance, coupled with an increased obligation, could shift the current outlook.
Glass Remelt
August: 116,734t | YTD: 865,257t | YTD Net Req. 865,039t | Ahead/Behind: +218t
Although Glass Remelt production has improved in recent months, it remains closely aligned with its YTD requirements, standing only 218 tonnes ahead. This narrow margin suggests ongoing volatility for Glass as we move further into the year. Despite the incomplete overall picture, no major increases in Glass obligation figures are anticipated.
Glass Other
August: 32,207t | YTD: 311,087t | YTD Net Req. 295,934t | Ahead/Behind: +15,153t
In contrast, Glass Other is performing more robustly, currently 15,153 tonnes (5%) ahead of its YTD requirements, despite weaker production in the latest reporting period. This stronger position provides some stability for the material as we head into the final quarter.
Plastic
August: 71,617t | YTD: 765,820t | YTD Net Req. 733,610t | Ahead/Behind: +32,210t
Plastic production has shown significant underperformance compared to previous months, putting it in a riskier position as we enter the final quarter. However, with 32,210 tonnes of overproduction so far, and the expected addition of unreported quarterly obligation data, there is potential for Plastic to recover its position against target by year-end.
Wood
August: 30,175t | YTD: 373,964t | YTD Net Req. 225,827t | Ahead/Behind: +148,137t
Wood, having already surpassed its target ahead of schedule, continues to contribute to the General Obligation. It is estimated that Wood production will add approximately 180,000 additional tonnes by the end of the year, further strengthening its already favourable position.
Dan Fullylove, Head of Compliance Services commented the following:
