Final 2022 PRN data released

This month the NPWD released the final Q4 figures for 2022, the data showed that each grade managed to hit target for 2022 however, the data release shows the lowest carryover figures since 2008 (500,000T). The overall obligation for 2022 was also updated which impacted expected carryover and left us with even less surplus after meeting 2022 recycling target.

We expect to receive the overall obligation figure for 2023 in May, during the interim we have used the 2022 obligation figure as a benchmark however, we hope to see the gaps between production levels and targets close once the 2023 obligation is released.

Despite low carryover and an increase in obligation, the data shows stronger monthly production for January and February compared with 2021 and 2022.

Paper and Board exceeded its 2022 target with 3,900,800t PRNs produced, despite hitting target the carryover for 2023 (56,000t) is 200,013t lower than 2022 carryover.

The first two months of the year saw almost 600,000t of Paper and Board PRNs generated, falling behind target by 15,000T. Although this may appear low, when compared to the beginning of 2022, there has been an increase of 161,000t PRNs produced. Due to the very low carryover figures we hope to see similar strong performances in the coming months to get Paper and Board back on track. The price remained steady, yet high throughout the month.

Both Glass Re-melt and Glass Other hit target; with less than 40,000t of carryover compared to 2022 carryover, last year’s difficulties with glass are reflected in the final data.

With 189,000t of Glass Re-melt production in January and February, we are sitting behind target by 35,000t. Compared to February 2022 and 2021 data, we are only slightly ahead of production in previous years. Glass Other PRN production was fairly low in January and February (68,000t) and similarly to re-melt, we are sitting just above where we have been in the previous two years yet still behind target by 19,000t due to low carryover.

Due to low availability of Glass Other, the glass market is heavily reliant on Re-melt at current. This would explain the increase in price for both glass grades in spite of stronger data than previous years. With this in mind and factoring in the low carryover figures, it is clear that last year’s glass issues have continued into 2023 and we could see the price remain at a similarly high level.

Aluminium hit its overall yearly target; with less than 1,000t of carryover for 2023 compared to 8,000t carryover figure in 2022, this is exceedingly lower than expected.

Compared to the previous two years, the beginning of 2023 has been a positive start to the year for Aluminium production. With 22,000 PRNs produced we remain slightly behind target; however, in a good place at this point in the year despite low carryover and increased obligation. We hope to see the strong performance continue; this would put Aluminium in good stead to get ahead of target in the coming months. The price of Aluminium PRNs fluctuated upwards this month but is expected to remain steady.

Steel hit its annual target for 2022 leaving just 18,000t of carryover for 2023. This is less than half the carryover we had in 2022.

Steel had a huge increase in production when looking at the last two Februarys with 20,519t produced, this is a 9,000t increase on January and February 2022. Steel is often a grade where we see recyclers registering for accreditations later in the year, so this increase may be due to more companies registering earlier off the back of the higher closing prices for Steel in 2022. Despite Steel’s stronger production levels this year, low carryover and an increase in obligation currently leaves Steel 32,000t behind target.

Plastic also hit its yearly target for 2022 and as we can see across all grades, Plastic carryover is also very low. With 50,500t less carryover compared to 2022, we’ll need to see consistent strong performances in the coming months for Plastic to get back on target.

Much like the other grades, Plastic currently sits behind target with production levels for January and February sitting at 140,000t. This is an increase from February 2022 and much the same level of production for February 2021. Therefore, there are no significant changes in comparison to previous years. Similarly to Glass, when factoring in the very low carryover and its issues with supply last year, Plastic is 60,000t behind target.

The Plastic PRN price fluctuated this month but has been consistent overall throughout the 2023 compliance year so far, we expect to see the price increase off the back of the Q4 data release.

As with all other grades, Wood hit its annual target but yet again, with 30,000t less of carryover than what 2022 had.

Despite low carryover, due to strong production in January and February (58,000t), Wood sits just behind target. We hope to see this performance continue which will put Wood in a good position to meet or exceed its target. The price of Wood remained low and steady throughout the month and forward markets suggest this will continue going into April.

Ed Ewence, Assistant Commercial Director, Clarity Environmental commented:

“With the release of the final quarterly data, we can see the issues with availability reflected in the carryover figure. This is the lowest carryover we have seen since 2008, despite this, production levels are much higher than previous years which would explain prices remaining steady.

To ensure all grades remain on track to meeting their obligation, we will need to see similar strong performances going forward. Although the low carryover can be concerning, the PRN market is doing what it has been designed to do, by mirroring high prices with high production levels.

I’m eager to see the final obligation figures for 2023, this information will provide us with more insight into how likely each grade is to hit target.”