January PRN data released

Ahead of the final 2022 quarterly data, the monthly PRN data from January shows that all recycling grades have hit their targets for 2022, apart from glass other. Despite concerns in the latter part of the year over a few of the grades meeting their requirements, targets were met once factoring in the 2021 carry over. However, January’s PRN data suggests that the carryover from 2022 to 2023 could be very limited for the new compliance year but of course, this will not be confirmed until we receive the Q4 data for 2022

Paper and board

Following an exceedingly strong December, paper and board had a difficult month yet compared to January 2022, this was a much better January (257,921). This grade still fell short of its monthly target by 28,000T. Despite this performance, paper and board hit its yearly requirement, sitting almost 500,000T over target. The paper PRN price remained steady throughout January with a slight reduction towards the end of the month. Forward markets suggest the price will continue to remain steady yet high.

Glass re-melt and Glass Other

Glass remelt failed to hit target in January (81,120T), missing its monthly requirement by almost 29,000T with glass other (26,096T) also failing to meet its monthly requirement by 17,000T. This low performance has left glass other missing its annual requirement by 15,000T however, with glass remelt sitting comfortably over its annual requirement, filling the glass gap with total glass sitting over target by 118,000T. The price of both glass remelt and glass other, fluctuated throughout the month with forward markets suggesting that prices will remain high for Q1 of the 2023 compliance year.

Aluminium

January was a weak month for aluminium with 8,526 PRNs generated, missing its monthly requirement by 3,200T. Nevertheless, aluminium exceeded its annual requirement by 7,000T. The PRN price for aluminium in January climbed throughout the month, with high prices predicted to continue going into 2023 compliance.

Steel

January was a very poor month for steel with just 7,305 PRNs generated, missing its target by 21,225T. Although January was a very low production month, steel hit its annual requirement with an excess of 16,676T. The price of steel remained high and around the same throughout the month of January, forward markets suggest similar prices going forward. It is worth noting that steel is a grade where we often see a significant increase with the quarterly data, so certainly one to watch in Q1 2023.

Plastic

Following a disappointing December, plastic performed even worse in January with 52,425T produced. Despite this, plastic hit its year-to-date requirement, exceeding its target by almost 32,000T. Plastic PRN prices were exceptionally high as with the majority of 2022 with forward markets suggesting no changes to this as we go into the 2023 compliance year.

Wood

There was a large drop off in production for wood in January with 13,847 PRNs generated. This is almost 15,000 below its monthly requirement. However, much like many of the other grades this month, due to overproduction in previous months wood exceeded its year-to-date target by 258,304T. Wood prices remained high but steady throughout the month of January, this is expected to continue into the start of 2023 compliance.

Ed Ewence, Assistant Commercial Director, Clarity Environmental commented:

“January has been a poor month for UK recycling, with all grades failing to meet their monthly requirements however, this is typical of January, and we’d expect to see a boost in all grades once the release of the final quarterly data.

Despite concern in the latter part of the year over plastic meeting its requirement, we are pleased to see that it managed to meet its annual obligation and exceeded the target. With 2022 being an unprecedented year for the PRN market, we expect to see volatility in the market continue with forward markets indicating prices will remain high as they were in the closing months of 2022 compliance.

The materials to watch in 2023 will be glass and plastic. With potentially limited carryover, we will need to see a strong start to the year for those materials.”

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